Urthecast Corp LFDEF

RE:RE:Internation station!

[BlueHorseshoe13]

That is ridiculous.  The ISS is one of the largest engineering projects ever undertaken in the history of man-kind.  It is multi-national, long term, and it has cost in excess of $100 billion to date.  To avoid Urthecast because you’re afraid that the ISS is going to ‘disappear’, or be destroyed by aliens or asteroids is to completely ignore the planning and due diligence that the US, Russia, the EU and other major partners would have done before committing significant tax dollars.  Urhtecasts interests in the ISS are protected by the shared interests of the largest economies on the planet, and while Urthecast’s project is the largest commercial application on the ISS to date, it is a rounding error when compared to the total funds needed to build, launch and maintain the ISS.  And the ISS is manned (meaning a catastrophe would result in the loss of life).  And (finally), some of Urthecast’s valuation at these levels would likely be backstopped by an insurance policy of some sorts.
If you like Urthecast, it is because:
·         You feel their long term CapEx profile is a competitive advantage over other providers.
·         You like the fact that cameras mounted on the ISS can operate 24/7, and do not need downtime for recharging (as satellite mounted camera do). 
·         You like the company’s relationship with the Russians, and believe their ability to mount and operate additional cameras (as planned) on the ISS is a competitive advantage.
·         Their HD real time video stream product is unique and will be of both commercial and public interest.
·         They will be successful in fixing the bi-axial pointing platform, and will achieve “first light” on the HD camera in Q1 2015.
·         The have distribution contracts for images that are signed, and waiting to be monetized.
If you don’t like Urthecast it is because:
·         You don’t think the company has the ability fix the pointing platform the HD camera is mounted on.
·         You buy the mini-satellites argument (that companies like Planet Labs can outcompete urthecast on price and product).
·         You think the $2B USD global market for earth observation is going to stay flat or shrink, and not double as industry experts believe it will.
 
I really don’t care if you buy or sell.  My own view (after having gone over the analyst coverage of the four big shops that are covering UR) is that there is a good chance (say, 75%) that the fix will work, and that the stock is going to $3.  And if the fix doesn’t work, the stock will drop to $0.75.  On basis I think it’s a good bet at these levels.