RE:High stakes chess...VS, I totally agree with the essence of your post, but please allow me to add that I think this particular chess match has at least two pairs of players with complementary but potentially competing motivations....
These pairs of players are DB v MPV, and TIGS v rest-of-the-shareholders.
Now 15 years ago, MPV needed DB to get the GK project off the ground in the early days, and in some sense sacrificed its maidenhood to achieve a partnership which could come to profitable fruition. As the PE interview indicated, MPV learned a lot working with DB to get the project funded, started, and through the regulatory processes. Now today the couple is "staying together for the sake of the kids", which is the completion of the GK project.
Given what I think are the TIGS motivations, it is unlikely that DB could make an offer to buy out MPV on anything which resembles reasonable economic terms. DB seems to have given up growth opportunity around GK now that MPV has spun out KDI (unless AAUKY/DB starts buying out the neignbours), so they have a finite financial return outlook. That makes them potentially susceptible (open?) to buyout by someone with sufficiently deep pockets, including its partner... once GK starts producing and MPV goes cash flow positive.
With a common objective (getting through regulation and into production), DB, TIGS and us little people (whom I will now designate as LP) all have aligned interests... "for the sake of the kids" so to speak. Once fully permitted and GK in production, the "kids are grown" and the interests diverge.
In this three-sided game, the LP have the fewest options. The DB folks (at 51% ownership) can fund, produce, collect their full due for all of production life, and call it a day after 20 years. Us mere humans are somewhat more constrained.
The TIGS / DD are already near 20% share ownership, at which point (and I am not a lawyer) it may be necessary for the TIGS to change something to avoid running afoul of the CBCA (see this link: https://www.moyak.com/papers/canada-business-corporations-act.html ). Note, there are no large institutional shareholders... my observation is that the next largest holding is on the order of 2% or so.
At that point it may be that the interests of the LP and of the TIGS diverge... and MPV may get taken private.
What I find curious, and there may be perfectly good legal reasons, I don't know, is the use of PP to fund next stage GK development as per MPV's contract with DB, as opposed to a bond issuance. The TIGS then takings up the bonds, assuming the funds are available... but I think the TIGS ain't interested in bonds. They clearly like equity.
Hmmm.