Fair price and future of PTA with Brent Crude at 60-65? A number of analysts are now predictin Brent crude to stay in the $65 range for a good part of 2015
CNBC article today:
"The chief executive of Kuwait's national oil company said oil prices were likely to remain around $65 a barrel for the next six to seven months, the latest indication that Gulf producers were content to ride out the latest rout."
Market Watch article today
Morgan Stanley, in a note dated Dec. 5, cut its forecast for average Brent crude price in 2015, seeing the price falling to as low $43 a barrel during the second quarter of next year. Without intervention by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, “markets risk becoming unbalanced, with peak oversupply likely in 2Q15, “ said analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky in the note. “Prices are set up to fall in 1H15, but we do not see stress quite matching that of prior crises.”
Different scenarios of tighter oil supply and stronger demand show that the first half of 2015 will see higher global oil stockpiles of 1.5 million to 2.0 million barrels a day, Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets at BNP Paribas, said in a report. He said there is a chance that the global oil balance can improve in the second half of next year under a best-case scenario.
So given the forecast flat to possibly declining Brent Crude prices expetected over next six months what might be a reasonable target price for PTA in six months?
I've held PTA now for about three months and am down 50 percent or so but am hoping to see at least a modest recovery in pta prices in next six months. What is this group's collective guess on PTA remaining profitable and stock appreciating significantly if brent crude price does indeed stay flat for next year or so?