Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

RE:RE:RE:Look out- Dividend Cut Coming

[WeKnowEnergy]

Thanks for the help with the cash flow projections, you're looking great.

Analysis98 wrote: Well WeKNowEnergy, you may think you know energy but you really don't do math very well.
Seems you are a little off in your numbers. 

You say cash flow for 2015 is 170 million.
The correct cash flow number for 2015 is 225 million.

Just to help you with the math, that provides an all in payout ration of less than 100%.

Below is a paste from Q3.


Though the recent decline in North American oil pricing has created uncertainties, we believe longer term in an $US90 to $95 WTI barrel. Twin Butte's hedging  program provides cash flow certainty in this volatile pricing period. The Company's 2015 budget is based upon an $US80 per barrel WTI price, 1.125 Cdn /US exchange rate, and a WTI to WCS differential of $US 18.50 per barrel, and incorporating the Company's strong hedge position, is forecast to maintain production at 21,500 boe per day and grow cash flow 10% to $225 million for 2015. This cash flow growth is a result of the ongoing transition to medium barrels, where the plan is to increase from a current weighting of about 38% to 45-55% medium of total oil barrels in the next 12 months. The company will closely monitor capital spending and adjust both positively and negatively with potential volatility in oil prices but currently feels comfortable with a 2015 capital plan of $160 million . Based on current dividend of $0.192 per year, the Company anticipates an all in payout ratio of just below 100 % in 2015.