Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

RE:A Dividend Cut Is NOT Coming

[WeKnowEnergy]

Hows your "sophisticated" model doing? Still blindly filled with management's consitently overly optimistic estimates? Sounds quite robust. Thanks for helping the board lose their shirt with your hubris.

pm1231 wrote: Curious - the level of discourse on the boards (a reason why i've stayed away).  I wrote the article on Seeking Alpha "Twin Butte Poised to Thrive In An Uncertain Oil Environment".

You're welcome to take a look at my analysis, I try to walk through it step by step.  I won't comment on your cash flow projection since it's plauged with holes (ie. for starters, the purpose of deriviative contracts - especially the ones TBE have locked in - is to hedge against commodity price risk). 

A model is based on a number of inputs with varying degrees of sensitivity. 

TBE's cash flow projection of $225M is WELL within reach for 2015 - and most of the banks seem to confirm it (including me).   That is assuming they hold production levels - on ever other measure - they have done very well. 

Also, I'm going to venture my model is a bit more sophisticated than yours (since I started my career as an institutional equity analyst).

For the general audience - a dividend cut isn't coming - not even close.  For those who feel otherwise - please write a counter articile on Seeking Alpha stating your detailed analysis and i'll be happy to provide my critique.