Stavely Minerals Ord Shs T.SVY

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Talisman pop

[jackpinesavage]

I think we should take a que from the Talisman deal.
I  owned TLM earlier in the year when Repsol first
offered a buyout at estmated $12. Talisman rejected
the bid believing fair value to be in the neighborhood
of $15+. Fast forward 6 months and Talisman is happy
to accept an offer for less than the original. Essentially
Repsol is acquiring for $8 (a 33% discount over the
earlier offer).
I think it safe to assume that history of fair value is in
the rear view mirror. Book value didn't mean much when
SVY was trading at $7 with P/V of .7.
I think it also safe to assume that the selling volumes
we've seen in the past 30 days has led a lot of shareholders
to rethink fair value for this company.
Irwin Michaels owns Savanna in nearly all of his Deep
Fundamental value Funds. His ABC Funds are commodity
heavy weighted and average a loss of over 25% ytd.
If you look at SVY on a current basis, you have to recognise
Mullen and the board has overleveraged the company with debt
and has very little he can do to change the macro picture of
oil and gas development going forward. If frac drilling stops or
slows because it is not economical at $55/bl. Who will contract
SVY for services in 2015?
I believe Savanna is not worth supposed book value in the
current environment. That being said. There are too many oil
service companies playing the same sandbox out of Calgary.
I would have liked to see Calfrac make an offer for Savanna, but
insiders who own nearly 25% of CFW chose to buyback shares
instead. However, that leaves Precision, Ensign, and Trican as
potential suitors. I think any of the 3 could make a hostile bid for
SVY at $5 and get shareholder approval. I know I would vote yes,
and I don't care what Mullen apps are. He has mismanaged this
company IMO.