Patricia Mohr nickel forecast SWAGI met Patricia last year. Very humble and sweet lady. Her forecasts are very accurate (extremely so). She is calling for 11.50 Nickel in 2016- when we are looking at a go moment.
https://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/bnscomod.pdf
If we use $11.50 in EODWAYs wonderful little spreadsheet we get a pretax IRR of 68.8 along with the rest of my numbers. We also get an 8% NPV of 6 billion. Not too shabby.
I also put the cost per tonne up to 35 dollars and truthfully it doesn't make that much of a difference- and 35 is pretty steep!
I often wonder how Indonesia managed to ship so much NPI ore to make such a difference in the worlds suppy- but it makes sense in that they are mining everything shallow, easy to get at, with no regard for the environment, no profit to Indonesia, with a short life span (10 years?) to keep it up. So there is no impetus to keep this up for the Indonesians and therefore no impetus to rescind the ban.
Meanwhile NPI production is very dirty, and we all know the Chinese are cracking down on pollution. NPI may have had it's day in the sun. Platinum on the other hand has been patiently waiting. Happy New Year!