GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
boarderex86on Jan 02, 2015 2:14pm
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Post# 23280419
RE:RE:Suspend Divi, Purchase notes at market price
RE:RE:Suspend Divi, Purchase notes at market price
At current oil prices, I don't think the share buyback is a priority in comparison to debt repayment. In a pessimistic scenario, (sustained low prices or asset sales do not materialize)LTS is at the mercy of bankers and debt repayment mitigates risk in the risk of a covenant breach. In a more optimistic scenario (prices recover in 2015), there is also a benefit because the price of debt will recover and the discount on principal will evaporate. I think the pessimistic case is far less likely due to the shockwave that has hit producers everywhere. Most notably, US shale producers who live on debt markets will run out of cash and production will fall rapidly. IF this does not happen quickly, 2015 budgets across the industry will be slashed further by Q3. At that point, global supply will see a meaningful decline within 6 months.