Short-term pain followed by long-term gain?Forecasters are not always correct but the following offer hope for shareholders of COS:
"The price of oil will recover. Opinions that it will remain low for a long time do not take into account that all producers need about $100/barrel. The big exporting nations need this price to balance their fiscal budgets. The deep-water, shale and heavy oil producers need $100 oil to make a small profit on their expensive projects. If oil price stays at $80 or lower, only conventional producers will be able to stay in business by ignoring the cost of social overhead to support their regimes. If this happens, global supply will fall and the price will increase above $80/barrel. Only a global economic collapse would permit low oil prices to persist for very long."
https://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html
A doctoral thesis by Christophe McGlade predicted, in November 2013, that oil prices would sink, and that they will stay low throughout the second half of this decade. Then what is likely?
"this period of low prices is followed by a steady, and under NPS rapid, rise in oil prices after 2020. In NPS prices more than double (rising to $160/bbl) between 2020 − 2030 and global production rises by 6 mbbl/d. After 2030, there are insufficient new projects available, even from Canadian bitumen, and so demand destruction becomes the predominant mechanism used to allow supply and demand to match, resulting in a spike in prices reaching a maximum of just under $500/bbl "
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Decade-Will-Decide-Peak-Oil-Outcome.html
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