RE:Paul has a small problemExcellent... The debt is what I beleive has created the gap. If CPG was at SGY's debt levels now CPG's production would be a lot higher. SGY is okay though. They previously indicated debt would decline to $486 Dec 2014. They had a good Q4 and probably spent $24
mln drilling (plus $6
mln on plant is a guess) with a capital efficiency of $13,556 per bbl and added maybe 1890 b/d I/P production.
But my model has debt flat with no free cash flow in Q4 after divy and cap ex so I wonder if they will reduce debt in Q4. Funny how it is dificult to forecast even the past. I feel like an economist.
If they do end up reducing debt somehow in Q4 that would be impressive to me. I have them spending $55 mln drilling all year and skewed to year end for now. They are fine this year if WTI averages $55 second half and maybe next year also at $55 if waterfloods and drilling continue to improve. Payout would be 108% though but lots of variables. (Q4 2016 debt repayability ration gets too high though) Overall pretty good under that type of scenario although that is not what I am expecting.
splurge