RE:RE:RE:RE:Must Read from PXT's PR: Netback at $20 with Brent at $60Forward EBITDA is what matters and until there is some production guidance you can't say PTA is cheapest E&P out there.
For Perd's sake, lets say they hit their exit guidance of 7,400 boepd. We saw that PXT has cut 2015 capex in half and is planning to keep 2015 production flat with Q4/2014, so lets assume PTA manages to keep 2015 production flat as well. Also, lets use round numbers and assume $20 netback. And for 2015 G&A lets assume $20 million, since Q3/2014 was $5.3 million.
2015 EBITDA = (field netback) - (G&A) = (7,400 x $20 x 365 = $54 million) - ($20 million) = USD $34 million
Now PTA's EV based on financials from last quarterly report and today's $0.155 cent close is = (market cap) + (net debt = LT Debt + CL - CA - restricted cash) = (872 million share x $0.155 x 0.84 = USD $113.5 million) + ($0 + $73 million - $94 million - $11 million = - USD $32 million) = EV of USD $81.5 million
EV/2015 EBITDA = USD $81.5 million / USD $34 million = 2.4x
Now let's assume HedgieTDot is correct and Q4/2014 production misses the 7,400 boepd exit guidance and comes in line with Q3/2014 production of 6,009 boepd (which I'm also leaning towards given the quiet Q4 and no news yet this year, production could even be lower). And then lets assume PTA holds production flat at 6,000 for 2015 and all the other same assumptions we used above.
2015 EBITDA = (field netback) - (G&A) = (6,000 x $20 x 365 = $44 million) - ($20 million) = USD $24 million
EV of USD $81.5 million
EV/2015 EBITDA = USD $81.5 million / USD $24 million = 3.4x
I would say that in this market PTA is fairly-to-over-valued right now and definitely not undervalued. Most international's are trading at multiples in this range and are higher quality names.