RE:RE:RE:RE:Analysts are sleeping againYes, Those I agree with except the notion or scenario of SGY realizing the hedge value is out of the questiion to my way of thinking. Their balance sheet could not tolerate it. If they gave up their hedges their debt to Ebitda goes up immediately on the hope energy prices go up. I have debt/ebitda for year end 2015 going from 2.9 times to 3.6 times. Not sure if the banks or the new Chairman would accept that unless they had a better balance sheet.
It is interesting he probably bought the latest property back in Novemeber or October when things were supposedly looking a little better. Had he waited I would think the drill bit sucess in Q4 suggests you can add a lot of oil at under 16,000 capital efficiency, especially with a new trend at Shaunavon. Buying properties for more than this does not make sense to me unless the asset was once in a life time and critical for strategic reasons which we will never here about. Can we compare acquisitions of 40,000 or 60,000 per flowing bbl to 15,000 to 20,000 from the drill bit?
I noticed Toro bought a property in Alberta back in November 400 bbls for $22.5 mln long life high netback oil in the Viking. $60,000 per flowing bbl a little lansdbut no plant. Those might be the metrics..we shall see.
As an aside, I still own a dribble of CPG and might buy it back if it weakens. I know they have a high decline rate on new wells and a high decline rate overall. Not sure what I should use as an overall decline rate. 30% 40%?
Do you have any insight? I am sure it is coming down as they insitute waterfloods but one concern I have always had was their decline rate although it did not stop me from buying it years ago.
cheers