RE:RE:At Brent =US$ 50, PTA operating cash flow is close zeroMr P:
Here are my comments on your post:
1. Price of oil Current price is about 50 and Dec futures are near $60. Would be reasonable to average those 2 for the 2015 average price with any other adjustments.
ANS: I MADE MY CALCULATION AT CURRENT OIL PRICE. OF COURSE, TAKING A FUTURE HIGHER (AND UNPREDICTABLE) PRICE, THE NUMBERS WILL BE DIFFERENT, BUT THAT WAS NOT MY POINT
2. G&A The G&A includes all sorts of 1 time costs for the Suroco merger and many non cash costs such as the management stock appreciation rights they issued (now worthless). Should be a lot lower going forward.
ANS: YOU ARE WRONG HERE. ONE TIME COSTS FOR SUROCO ACQUISITION AND SHARE -BASED PAYMENT COSTS ARE IN SEPARATE LINES OF THE BALANCE SHEET AND THEREFORE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN G&A EXPENSES (SEE THE BALANCE SHEET)
3. Lifting Costs Lifting costs were artificially elevated on a per barrel basis as the PUT fields were shut in for Q3. They still had operational expenses for the fields to keep the wells ready to produce (which they are now doing).
ANS: YOUR ANALYSIS IS INCOMPLETE HERE. AS THE COMPANY STATED IN THE LAST MD&A REPORT (PAGE 6) PRODUCTION COSTS IN THE QUARTER INCREASED NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE PRODUCTION STOPPAGES, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF HIGHER WATER HANDLING COSTS IN LAS MARACAS AND THE LOWER QUALITY OF THE OIL COMING FROM THE FORMER SUROCO FIELDS
4. Transportation Costs This is going to decrease a lot in 2015. LM has been decreasing. Partner Vetra is already trucking oil to Ecuador and neighbor Amerisur has a pipeline to Ecuador opening in Q1 with 40K spare capacity. Much lower transportation costs are key for them. PUT costs could drop about $10.
5. Royalties The production mix is changing with less % from high royalty LM, so 20% assumption may not be correct.
ANS: MAYBE YOU ARE RIGHT HERE. LETS SEE IF THEY ARE ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY REDUCE TRANSPORTATION COSTS.
6. Costs Dropping There will be much less drilling and costs are going to drop for all oil companies.
ANS: ANY EVENTUAL REDUCTION ON DRILLING COSTS GOING FORWARD HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH LIFTING AND TRANSPORTATION COSTS
FERNANDO