Canexux TodayThe confusion (among some) re the Canexus POR numbers persists.
They publish 2 numbers;
- Payout Ratio (includes the value of the DRIP shares issued) 517% in Q3
- Cash Payout Ratio (net of drip participation) 395% in Q3
These are clearly terrible numbers and if your “agenda” is to bash Canexus obviously it is more effective to use the bigger number.
NATO had a Cash Operating Loss of $4.6m in Q3. If your “agenda” is bashing it would be counterproductive to mention that the Unit Train facility was out of service for almost the entire quarter. In Q2 NATO had a Cash Operating Profit of $2.4m. Due to the fact that the Unit Train Facility has been operating for the entire Q4 we can expect a “SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT” in the NATO result in Q4.
If your “agenda” is bashing it would not help to mention that Canexus has a very good Chemical Business that has the potential to show improved results in Q4.
As a result of the above I expect that the Q4 POR numbers won’t be good but will be “SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER” than Q3.
I think that a Dividend Decrease in 2015 is likely (my guess 50%).
At this time it appears that Canexus hasn’t received an offer for NATO that they like. If you are a shareholder what would you prefer? They sell it at a “fire sale” price or continue to operate it until they get a fair offer. I know what I prefer.
Although my position in CUS is seriously underwater (ACB $4.75) as they say you haven’t lost anything until you actually sell.
It’s clear that Canexus faces some major challenges in the near future. Things haven’t played out as I expected when I established my position. “STUFF HAPPENS” Whining and looking for people to blame is not productive. That said in my opinion the situation is not nearly as bad as the “bashers” (whiners?) would like us to believe.
In my opinion selling at the current price would (for me) be a mistake. I am actually tempted to average down a bit.
As Always, Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!