RE:TLT Cash EstimatesCirrus wrote: Hi, I'm a new poster to the board but not new to TLT. I've been building a position since May 2014.
I've been looking at TLT's burn rate, and I'll share my thoughts. Please feel free to correct any facts/estimates I've stated below.
Sept 30/2014 Cash: $2,141,487
Sept 30/2014 Current Assets: $3,339,272
Sept 30/2014 Warrants outstanding: 8,802,833
Warrants exercised since Sept 30: 3,816,700
Proceeds from warrants: $877,841 (assume av. exercise price of $0.23)
Q3/2014 loss: $1,048,034
Estimated Jan 9/2014 cash position: $1,969,328 ($2,141,487+$877,841-$1,050,000)
Estimated Warrants outstanding: 4,986,122
Estimated value of outstanding warrants: $1,146,808 (assume av. strike price of $0.23)
In my opinion TLT has access to enough cash for 3 quarters at their Q3/2014 burn rate. This is before adding sales of the TLC-2000 or adding expense for the human trials.
For the TLC-2000, I'm estimating 2015 sales of 300 units for total revenue of $4.5 million, or approx. $1.1 million / quarter.
Cirrus
**Jan 9/2015 Estimate. I'd agree with your post. Excellent summary. Perspective... even with just light TLC2000 sales in 1H2015, and IF their burn rate doubled (no reason to believe this but just for the hell of it or allowance of PDC trial expenses), they would will have cash for the next two quarters. Then, for 2H2015, assuming they maintain a burn rate of 125k a month or even under $200k a month, they'd only have to sell 20 TLC2000's a month to offset their burn. They don't need a financing... I believe the only reason they'd finance is if their was a strategic reason to do so where acceleration of 'something' would justify the cash/dilution while providing great value to the shareholder long term.. and it would come at a market premium.
Great post.Thanks