CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

RE:RE:RE:Canexux Today

[snootchybootchy]

BlueCollar51 wrote:

leo; Pumpers and Bashers tend to use the same tactics. Post a selective “Fact” out of context or any attempt to analyse the cause of the “Fact”.
 
“OMG The POR Is 500%”; “Fire the CFO it’s all his Fault” is Blatant Bashing! (Whining?).
 
FYI; “Maintenance” had very little if anything with The Unit Train Facility being out of service for most of Q3. It was shut down to do the work required for the expansion. Due to an unfortunate Legal dispute with MEG (that Canexus won) the shutdown was prolonged.
 
The end result was what it was; a Cash Operating Loss of $4.6m.
 
The Unit Train Facility was in service for all of Q4. From what we have been told it’s operating at abt. 40% of its designed capacity. Abt. 40% of capacity will generate considerably more revenue than close to 0%. As a result the Q4 NATO results will be substantially improved which will improve the POR numbers.
 
In Q2 the POR numbers were;

1. Payout Ratio (includes the value of the DRIP shares issued) 118%
2. Cash Payout Ratio (net of drip participation)                          92%

 
 
If we assume that in Q4 the Chemical Division does as well or possibly a bit better than in Q2 and NATO does as well or possibly a bit better we could see similar numbers for Q4.
 
 
I realize that I am making a lot of assumptions. We won’t know what the Q4 results actually are until they are officially released.
 
 
My point is that the situation is not nearly as bad as “OMG The POR Is 500%” is designed to suggest.
 
 
I am not “Pumping” CUS. As I said there are some major challenges in the near future. The amount of Debt they currently have is the #1 problem.
 
 
I believe that when assessing a company everything has to be considered “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly!”
 
ocean112; I agree that Canexus probably has a few proposals to evaluate/negotiate and it will take some time. As somebody (I believe it was Warren Buffet) once said “The Market Transfers Wealth From The Impatient To The Patient”.
 
 
My ACB of $4.75 is what it is. When I evaluate one of my positions for a sale or to add to what I paid for it is not relevant. What is relevant is what the current price is, where I think it’s going and the weighting in my portfolio.
 
 
As Always, Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!

Misery loves company.  My ACB is roughly the same.  I didn't sell this dog during tax-loss season just because I felt the sale could be announced at anytime.  No sale was announced obviously but I'm still confident I won't lose any money since the NATO sale is not being reflected in the share price.  I think 12 months from now, we will see that the stock is a bargain at this price.  The only reasons I'm not buying more are 1) I'm already overweight in this stock and 2) because there are great bargains everywhere right now.  I'm happy to collect the dividend until some sort of conclusion with NATO is reached.