RE:Warning SignsAs mentioned, after today I will be leaving for an extended period of time as I see TLT going thru a major valley over the next 9 months before it potentially climbs the mountain. -----Most of us are ok with waiting to see what the next 9 months brings. What are you going to do, jump back in at 8months 3 weeks? If the writing isn't on the wall before this climb.. similar to pre-invivo and already starting to climb to the sp, then you'll be very luck to get back in at today's sp... but if you want to wait for it to be further derisked, kudos to you. I categorize my reasons as Warning Signs:
(1) TLC-2000 HC approval: Management has never indicated a submittal date. I suspect that since this is a more advanced unit, that HC may have wanted more proof of concept rather than theory... so why not just say that or other. Obviously, this has major implications for funding. -----You wanted to know when they submitted for HC approval? They did indicate that more requirements and testing was needed in their press release two days ago. "Theralase will launch the patented, next generation TLC-2000 biofeedback therapeutic laser system in Canada in 1Q2015 and in the US in 2Q2015. Theralase had anticipated launching the TLC-2000 in 4Q2014, but due to increased testing and regulatory requirements brought on by new international testing standards, launch was slightly delayed to allow the Company time to complete its mandatory regulatory testing." I don't see any implications for funding, you'd have to explain that one. It's not like the device won't be approved. (2) Funding: Some of you are capable of going onto Sedar to pull up the 3rd q financials ($2 million in cash remaining at end Sept). Unfortunately, based on last years 4th q financials, you won't see 4th q financials until April 30th (4th q for all companies is always slowest). Some of you should pull up the salaries and the new staffing levels from the website... there are now 20+ individuals on payroll. This does not include all of the external activity costs... these easily exceed $1 million per quarter which is why something has to happen with funding shortly. I place a massive share issuance at 75% and a bad pharma deal at 25% (Roger has actually previously alluded to prior offers but was not specific... imagine that). -----Roger via radio interview stated they had 2M as of the end of November 2014.
Year end financials in April15 sounds about right.
Staff is here: https://theralase.com/about-us/
Where do you see their salaries?
1M per quarter for salary/admin is highly unlikely... possibly a 3rd of that and half of that already demonstrated in Q3 expenses.
Lothar is paid by UHN who was paid by TLT a total of $168,000 to identify the lead compound, provide GMP evaluation and pre-toxicology of the lead compounds, codevelop medical instruments and dosimetry and for use of laboratory bench space. University of Toledo was paid $29,043 to conduct pre-clinical animal studies aimed at testing the efficacy of using novel photosensitizers and photodynamic therapy in a rat bladder tumor model.
Administrative expense in 3 months ending Sep30th 2014 up to Q3 increased from 3 months ending Sep30th 2013 @ $211,541
Research and development expenses in 3 months ending Sep30th 2014 increased to $580,070 from 3 months ending Sep30th 2013 @ $92,175
$323,553 of this is solely attributed to the TLT divisions vs $0 for 2013. Stock based compensation also increased
PDC Sigma and JSS expenses are in Q3 as well.
Clearly a lot of the ramp up as you mention and worry about for TLC2000 has already stated in Q3 financials on Sedar and will be continued/ balanced into Q4. I'm sure a lot of the sales managers don't start right away and will be incentive based salaries which means conversions which means $16500 up front per unit to offset. If they aren't converting, they won't be on the books too long that is for sure. What expense does that leave that isn't reasonably expected and already showing ramp up on Q3 admin/dev expenses?
(3) Preclinical trials: The mice trials were subcutaneous with tumor growth to 5mm. The rat trials were inside the bladder and allowed to grow to 1mm before treatment. Tumor was eradicated but validation similar to mice?? Why not allow these to grow to 5mm? Bencro says that Dr. Lilge answered this? In Bencro's of Lilge interpretation, the tumor size/challenge doesn't matter? Is this what Lilge meant? W/o any data? I think not. More on this later today when I discuss my findings on human bladder cancer. I was expecting further data from preclinical. Some on this board asked, "are there more trial results expected"? No response but maybe I will be surprised tomorrow when additional preclinical data is released! -----Lothar is to codevelop medical instruments, method and dosimetry. If he was concerned about tumor size, I'm pretty sure he would have discussed it at the AGM. We'll see what you from the outside know about the Science that Lothar doesn't when you check back in with your findings. Thanks. (4) Catalysts: I held out selling my 100k shares on Friday to get to 101k remaining because I kept expecting TLC-2000 announcement or add'l preclinical data. I would have rather sold this 100k at $0.50 rather than $0.39 avg but funding is red flag. a.) TLC-2000 approval- Short term effect as shareholders will realize very little TLC revenue for 1st q... maybe even less than 4th q. b.) Preclinical data: Is there more data to follow from U of T or PM? Question was asked but no response! Maybe a positive surprise or not! c.) Funding: This is what is keeping Roger up at night! He is asking himself, "what do I do? Take the bad deal or come with massive share issuance"? We will all know soon enough! d.) Pharma purchase out of the blue: Possible which is one reason I keep the 101k shares. The "used car" salesman could surprise me! e.) Most like catalyst scenario= none: What I mean to say here is you're looking at dead time for the next 6 to 9 months. -----Most of us are ok with waiting to see what the next 9 months brings. What are you going to do, jump back in at 8months 3 weeks? If the writing isn't on the wall before this climb.. similar to pre-invivo and already starting to climb to the sp, then you'll be very luck to get back in at today's sp... but if you want to wait for it to be further derisked, kudos to you. Unlike you, I don't believe Roger is a used car salesmen. You still haven't told us where you learned this? When did Roger sell cars?
(5) Independent analysis: The only recent analysis done was by Zack's issued 12/3/2014... PLEASE READ IT! This is one of the most inaccurate analysis's I've ever read. Either Anita at Zach's is completely incompetent or she contacted TLT for this report and was given completely false information. Relative to Korelin, since they are all now investors in Theralase and Tharalase is an advertiser on their website (conflict of interest?), you do not hear them ask Roger any questions of substance unlike their summer interviews. g.) TLT Communication: Unquestionably the thing that has made me the most bitter. It is the thing that has transformed me from a "goo goo" eyed investor in the science of TLT to a trader (yeah call me a traitor if it makes you feel good). The bottom line is that I've seen Roger evolve from the most gregarious forthcoming individual in early 2014 (he couldn't keep his mouth shut... 2 weeks couldn't pass w/o his being interviewed or issuing a PR) to an evasive non- communicative CEO. (How about his use of the word, "ABSOLUTELY" when starting the answer to a question). Anyway, good luck... I'll have some final thoughts this afternoon as this is time I do not have this morning.
----You get more and more desperate with each point. Nice try. Anita does great work. You're funny. You're added to my ignore list.