To add to your post FerretWhat bothers me is the weekly rate of withdrawals last year through January and February. It would be hard to trump those figures this year even with this current cold weather. So I would expect the year over year stats to diverge substantially. It suggests burdensome stocks moving from winter into the shoulder season. Even so, there are mitigating circumstances: (1) a number of coal plants coming off line being replaced by combined cycle gas plants. (2) Power companies will likely do what they did in 2011, namely soak up the surplus NG sloshing around (for a song too). Disconcerting as that seems, it is useful. (3) The downward rig count in the lower 48 I regard as big news. IMO that -60 number announced Friday means there are a helluva lot more rigs to follow the nearly 200 already pulled off-line It strongly suggests many producers are neither hedged in sufficient quantity nor “in far enough out durations” to prevent further declines in the rig count. In fact, if the Saudis don't relent, that may save our bacon. I have read comments suggesting they plan to shake the markets down until they have wrung out all these “forward premiums” from the oil market. I don’t even know if that’s possible, but the longer the Saudis keep up their pressure on the oil market so then the likelihood that NG markets benefit from a rapidly declining rig count. The indirect effect of Saudi oil policy on the NG in the U.S. market should not be underestimated! Re the Marcellus: Bentek noted the Arctic Princess, a LNG carrier out of Norway delivered a shipment to Cove Point (Maryland). The LNG was sent out to capture those premiums in the NY markets. Ironic isn't it? Bill Bonner was saying on BNN (Jan 7th Market Call) that PA gas was going for 1 cent a cf in Tennessee recently and yet the NY market is being scooped by LNG. I appreciate that in open markets, all is fair game, - but if I were a driller in the Marcellus hearing that news it would most assuredly break my will to continue. But a more sober appraisal suggests lack of takeaway in the Northeast has been a persistent problem for Marcellus gas and it can explain these anomalies of 1 cent gas. Let’s not be overawed by the threat of the Marcellus versus other NG producing regions. The network of competing hubs across North America and the costs of shipping from one hub into another operate like checks and balances. It’s hardly like all the hubs have their hands tied behind their back and the Marcellus (with free hands) is able to beat the krap out of them. Pipeline build outs in the northwest will always be behind the curve and drillers need to curb their enthusiasm. 1 cent a cf won’t cover their costs. When are Marcellus drillers going to align their drilling programs to coincide with better pipeline takeaway?