Just Energy Group Inc. (Canada) T.JE

FWIW, today's outlook from TD for JE

[netgenx]

Our financial forecast is unchanged following the announcement of the residential solar agreement as we believe that solar will not contribute meaningfully to financial results in the near-term. For example, if Just Energy successfully converts 5,000 customers to solar, receives a $4,000/customer origination fee, and has 50% gross margins on that revenue, our F2017 gross margin forecast would only increase by 1.7%. We believe that a more critical driver of Just Energy shares in the near-term is the company's H2/15 results. Although it is dangerous to read too much into anecdotal evidence, we believe that the relatively warm fall and early winter weather does not bode well for Just Energy's Q3/15 results (the three months ended December 31, 2014). We believe that Just Energy could be faced with a worst-case scenario of selling excess gas into a market where spot prices have declined materially, generating losses. In addition, as Just Energy focuses on higher margin fixed-price gas and electricity contracts, the company may have difficulty selling new contracts in an environment of falling commodity prices. Moving into the fourth quarter, year-end results are likely to be very weather dependent and are difficult to accurately forecast as was evident in last year's results, which were impacted by the polar vortex.