RE:I like TLT. I dislike the overall stock market action.
cashflow wrote: I like TLT. I dislike the overall stock market action and its potential impact on TLT. US stock market looks sick. My analysis (topping dollar, crashing commodities, stock market extended, layoffs picking up in steel and oil industry, high margin debt, high bullishness, etc) says the US stock market has downside of about 30%. If my analysis is correct, based on TLT's trading action today, TLT could see $.25 to $.30 if liquidity drys up. I still own 50,000 (down from 250,000) and do not plan on selling any more. I am short the stock market. Thanks
Thanks cashflow and skier.
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Do you think the big crash is coming this year? Or just 30%... wouldn't we typically see that fall start more into summer? For the big crash we're overdue,do you see that coming after presidential election?
I'm not sure what we can really guage from one day of TLT trading action... the last two weeks in general have surprised me... I'm guessing it has to do with oil dynamics.. I'm still expecting a good run in most markets up to about March before flattening out... then hoping Oil hasn't turned around by then to jump into Energy and Canadian Banks for the summer.