GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
eliner63on Jan 24, 2015 12:29am
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Post# 23358543
RE:RE:if last time is indication
RE:RE:if last time is indicationAnybody who thinks they know where prices will be in 6 months is just forming an opinion, nobody really knows. The deeper the cut maybe better for LTS than a 50-60 dollar range for an extended period, as deeper creates a stronger rebound.
Some think this will happen in March, some think May, but for sure it will happen. It does take a few months to see the effect of decreased drilling, but when it happens we will probably say things have gone too far and can expect some much higher prices 6 months out. Drillers are faster to cut back than to increase drilling. In 2009 we didn't see a noticable recovery in drilling until WTI held 75/bbl.
Work has really slowed for us in Texas/Oklahoma, but still need significant trimming in horizonal drilling. Also cutting out a rig in a marginal field has less impact to overall production, so with each week of cutting the impact is higher. I think we need US horizontal rigs close to a1000 before a real turnaround happens.