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Salman: "we will not have any zinc shortages until 2019."

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https://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2015/01/27/metals-supercycle-remains-intact-says-bay-street-analyst-ray-goldie

Raymond Goldie, Vice-President, Commodity Economics with Salman Partners was in Vancouver Tuesday to talk about the “super cycle,” a term that was often used in the early part of this century when metal prices kept going up in a seemingly relentless fashion.

“We have been in a super cycle since 2004,’’ Goldie told the CFA Society of Vancouver during a lunchtime speech.

But even though the price of key metals has weakened in the past two years, it doesn’t mean the current supercycle is over. Rather it is caught in a “mid-cycle trough,” he said.

“The rebound lies ahead."

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Goldie wasn’t so bullish on the outlook for copper and zinc, which he predicts will move in a sideways fashion in the near future.

However, he reminded his audience that the price of copper (at US$2.46 a pound) is still healthy, given that it continues to trade at a higher level than at any time before 2006.

This is because of shortfalls in supply stemming from a lack of investment in future mines.

The copper industry also has problems maintaining existing mines at current rates of production, Goldie said.

Meanwhile, the former Richardson Greenshields analyst says the price of zinc is likely to remain unchanged. “Western world demand is pretty flat,’’ he said, adding that China has gone from being a net importer of zinc to a net exporter, a development that he attributes to the growing supply of mom and pop operations in China.

“I don’t think we will have any zinc shortages until 2019,’’ he said.