Oil
Oil price may stay artificially suppressed for quite a while. Russia is relentless in its pursuit of another chunk of the Ukraine, and the US will not enter the conflict directly lest they wish to inflict Cold War part deux unto the world. The US will instead fight a war of attrition against Russia.
The decline in oil price over the last 7 months makes little sense relative to global production vs. consumption. Yeah there's a little tail off, but not enough to justify a 60%+ decrease in oil price. Totally artifical IMO.
See this chart:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y
Although I'm not 100% sure, 50%+ of Russian's GDP is(was) directly and indirectly reliant on oil. The ruble will continue its plunge until the Park1(sic) hits the fan in Russia.
In the meantime, with oil(WTI) in the $40-$50 range, the US economy is gearing up for its best performance in 10 years. Win-win as far the the US gov't is concerned.
Not sure when to get back on the energy bandwagon, but my feeling is that the best sign would have to be news out of Russia. Perhaps an increased military presence in uncontested areas(Arctic)? Civil unrest? We'll see how it plays out.
Thoughts?
Shat