Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

RE:RE:RE:RE: Oil Prices Head Fake

[JohnJBond]

OPEC reports need to be read between the lines.

The parts that stand out for me are.

1.   OPEC states the slow down in US drilling has been much larger and faster than they anticipated

2.   They want oil prices to stay slow until the end of June/15

3.   They anticipate higher demand for OPEC oil by the end of the year

Recently the head of OPEC said that oil prices will improve soon.

Reading between the lines, I see a report that tells OPEC members their policy of not cutting supply is working well, by stopping supply growth outside of OPEC, and will shortly show material declines in us production.    I also see a report written to encourage all OPEC members to stick to the strategy to keep prices low until the end of June/15.

The June 2015 is a very interesting reference, in that its the mid point in the year..........ie, follow our strategy for half the year, then get much higher prices in the second half.     its suggestive that there is a prospective "end date" to this low price strategy.     June may be the prefered date of the strategy's authors, but may well be a negotiation point within OPEC.     In my view, June is likely the furthest out date for a change in OPEC strategy.