Qsolar Ltd. QSLRF

Buyout highly unlikely

[EaglesIII]

I have noticed that many are discussing their hopes that a buyout may actually happen. Though it seems reasonable from an investors persective that a larger firm out there would want their technology, everyone should take into account the perspective of a rational acquirer. That is if I was a company with the capital to purchase QSolar and acting rationally (yes we aren't actually rational majority of the time), I would be more advantageous for them to wait until Q goes out of business.

There doesn't seem to be any reason that anyone would have the push to act now and buyout a company if it looks like they are going under due to insolvency. In fact many of the other posters have already pointed out the downward spiral that the company has been on since the tarrif and anti-dumping issues arose. So as a rational person and firm, I would wait until it seems they are either gaining a larger number of contracts or selling at sustainable levels giving me the impetus to buy them out now before they become a significant competitor or buy them out AFTER they start to actually go under at firesale prices potentially after bankruptcy and the parts/IP are sold off. You have to remember that we may 'know' and see the long term value in their technology, not everyone knows who they are (the first issue with the buyout idea), how reliable their products are (though that is now greatly mitigated with safety and efficacy UL Certs.), or how significant the benefits of their technology really are. Keep in mind that their are numerous other signficantly more promising technologies in relation to the solar market coming to market very soon that firms may also have a greater actual interested in than another solar PV manufacturer with a slightly better product. It's hard to get people interested in a technology that has been around for 50 years and hasn't changed much when QSolar offer what most people assume to be basically the same thing but from an unrecognized company, and again with a less attractive (lower return) value to other upcoming technologies. In short, the value proposition that Q's tech adds doesn't seem to be enough to garner the attention of the large dominant firms who have many other things to think and worry about than a modest improvement in an old technology.

QSolar's best bet right now is to license and/or partner with someone who has what Q needs, and that is market channels. As I said well over a month ago, UL Certification only helps Q gain access to markets, but without actual sales and cash flow, they are simply withering away. So why would I as a rational investor buyout a company now, when I could just wait until they fail or start to make big moves and start on their way to a sustainable future again?