Pro RataThis pro rata theory is one of the most logical scenarios I have read.
Oil companies have made it clear that they don't see 100 dollar barrels anytime soon and the key to survival at 70 dollars a barrel is consolidation and other reduced operating expenses. Having fewer stakeholders in Syncrude would certainly reduce management costs.
It will be the companies with strong cash reserves who pulled back on their exploration and development capex that will be looking for proven sources of oil. Syncrude fits that bill. Getting one or two entities off the Syncrude teet will reduce costs.
As as for potential SP if (and it is still a big if) there is an offer on COS...I cannot see it at 12. There are just too many shareholders like myself who bought this stock at much higher levels and recognize the value of the 50 some odd years of reserves at Syncrude. I cannot imagine anything other than 20 (plus or minus 20 percent).
All conjecture at this point....but I do think it is viable to believe a takeover is at least being considered/discussed.
Either way, oil will likely get back to the 70 mark and COS will likely fall into step again and become a 15 stock like last Nov when oil was in that range. So I consider there is more upside.
But then, I thought that in mid Dec when there was a spike to 11.40 before the ride to 6.10 in Jan.