RE:Combined ASSURE/SUSTAIN The following data is the data I was referring to in my posting of Feb 20th at 3:50. The prediction formulas for the following data are in the original posting.
I tried to insert a graph of the actual data and MACE predictions but I could not figure out how to do this on Stockhouse. The graph is quite striking. If anyone knows how to paste in a graph please let me know and I'll put it in.
| | | | MACE Events From Combined SUSTAIN & ASSURE | | |
| | | | | Predicted | Predicted |
| Time | Test Data | Predicted | Control | Control | Control |
| in | Crestor + | Crestor + | Data | cubed | LN + |
| Days | rvx-208 | 208 LN | Crestor | polynomial | time squared |
| 0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| 15 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
| 30 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.9 |
| 45 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 60 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| 75 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| 90 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| 105 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.8 |
| 129 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 8.9 |
| 135 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 9.6 |
| 150 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 11.5 |
| 165 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 13.9 |
| 180 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 16.6 |
| 195 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 15.2 | 15.7 | 19.8 |
| 210 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 20.8 | 20.4 | 23.4 |
| 225 | | 4.7 | | 26.4 | 27.4 |
| 240 | | 4.9 | | 33.9 | 31.9 |
| 255 | | 5.2 | | 43.1 | 36.7 |
| 270 | | 5.4 | | 54.2 | 42.0 |
| 285 | | 5.7 | | | 47.8 |
| 300 | | 5.9 | | | |
| 315 | | 6.2 | | | |
| 330 | | 6.4 | | | |
| 345 | | 6.6 | | | |
| 360 | | 6.9 | | | |
If you put this data into a graphing program I think
you'll get an idea of why Don seems to be smiling these days. As I mentioned in the original post I was reminded of today on a science show called Quirks and Quarks was a quote from Yogi Berra and it was "Prediction is hard ...especially if it's about the future".
Keep in mind the all patients had diabetes mellitus and CVD and the control group was treated with Crestor and the test group was treated with Crestor plus rvx-208.
You can see clearly that at day 150 that MACE started to increase exponentially in the control group and within those treated with rvx-208 + Crestor the MACE rate was low and remained low through the 210 test period.
We all know that science must be replicated so hopefully we'll got moving on BETonMACE.
Cheers
Toinv :)