RE:RE:RE:Combined ASSURE/SUSTAIN Hi GV.
I used the graph of MACE events from the combined SUSTAIN and ASSURE trials that Don has presented a few times such as at the webcast last fall and down in Texas recently. It's the one that shows the relative risk reduction (RRR) of 77% with the diabetes mellitus patients with CVD for the patients treated with Crestor and rvx-208 compared to those treated with Crestor only.
This research did measurements for 215 days and showed an exponential increase in MACE events in the control group (those treated with only Crestor) at the 155 day period which moved up to 20.8% by day 215.
But in the test group (those treated with Crestor plus rvx-208) the MACE level was 5.1% at day 215.
So what I did was fit regression curves to the data in order to get rid of period to period random variation and to give a more solid view of the MACE trend patterns. I then projected the data out to different time periods base on what I thought was a reasonably stable period.
So for the control group (treated with Crestor only) I fitted 2 regression function as follows:
- A 3rd degree polynomial function of time. This function had a very high fit with an R squared of over 99%. I projected this out to 270 days and it showed control MACE could be 54%. Knowing a little bit about polynomial functions I felt this projection to be aggressive.
- Therefore I fitted a function which was a combination of the natural logarithm and a 2nd degree polynomial. This had a high R squared (variance explained) and forecasted MACE at day 210 of 42%.
Then based on the look of the data I fitted a linear and natural logarithmic function to the test groups (Crestor plus rvx-208 treated) and it had a good fit (R squared about 89%) and projected MACE at 360 days and the prediction was 6.9%.
This is a 150 day projection and should be viewed with caution. I graphed this data, both the actual data and the projections and attempted to put it into Stockhouse but could not figure how to do it. So then I pasted in the spreadsheet yesterday.
So IMHO this is part of the reason why Don, Eastern Capital (Ken Dart) and NGN Capital are all smiling on their way to the bank with RVX stock.
Apologies for the long story. I just wanted to get a clear picture for myself. As I mentioned in previous posts it is a pity for those people in the control group because of the risk they suffer.
IMHO
Cheers :)
Toinv