Re BIR, B.C. LNGAlmost from its very inception everything about Birchcliff smacks of a company being prepared for sale. Of course it must have taken a year or 2 to get some feel for the vast potential of the Montney play, but once apparent, the possibility of B.C. LNG as a suitable takeaway for was a no brainer for everyone and it has shaped the management’s thrust going forward. Drilling and buying acreage, (based on their growing understanding of the play’s geology), an immense land package has been amassed essentially in just this one area. They have added light oil and condensate capability to the mix, and built out the infrastructure in the form of well completions all tied into their gas plant. Rather like a builder providing a new home with all the appliances, -and a perfect turnkey operation for the new owner. They have been careful not to pull on their wells in order to build reserves. Even the share structure, 40 million being owned by Schulich, in some sense, keeps a lot of people from “messin with the company” until a buyer comes forward. No intermediary buyer will scoop up the company for a quick resale. No. This will go right to the end user in my opinion and Schulich and management will see to that. Everything that has been done has purposely gone into this one final sales basket. And I think the sale price will satisfy both parties, - meaning there will be lots of value left on the table for the buyer to fold into their LNG operation. Will there be B.C. LNG? Undeniably it offers close geographic proximity to Asia. Turnaround time for LNG carriers is a huge advantage. Many pundits question the razor thin margins but it is not stopping U.S investment in LNG and I’m sure the Americans have worked the numbers backwards and forward. LNG from Louisiana and Massachusetts make sense for European markets just as B.C. LNG does for Asia. I completely disagree with the negative comments on possible Federal tax breaks in the upcoming budget (article I posted the other day). Some bone will be tossed to potential LNG candidates, as this is way too strategic for B.C. and the Canada to miss out on. Expect the Federal government to make some attempt to somehow place climbers on the mountain’s cliff face. Of course some of the agonizing questions are: exactly when will the sale occur, and in the meantime, should one risk being completely out of the stock, -not knowing when it might happen? Tantalizing questions to say the least. Well right now the price is right for opening bids, and given the fact that there are more than just one LNG entrant, it suggests the possibility that if a bid is forthcoming it could very well turn competitive. There’s a grim finality to “Going once, going twice……and down comes the hammer. Schulich said in that Globe magazine article a few weeks ago, there are basically only 4 possible companies that could supply the quantities of gas that B.C. LNG requires. Progress is one of those companies and it is in the hands of PETRONAS, leaving BIR and 2 others. Admittedly no shovel as yet has been put into the ground, but if one of the entrants had decided to go ahead, wouldn’t it be better (in the hunt for advantage and getting a leg up on your competitors) to grab your NG supply before you announce and before you build your terminal?