Great announcement
This update was a pleasant surprise! I concur with all of the positives highlighted by the posters befor me.
I have a few additional remarks/question marks:
- NPV10% calc based on "GLJ January 2015 ICE brent" forecast. That should be:
https://www.gljpc.com/sites/default/files/files/Jan15Pricing.pdf
2015 $67.5
2016 $82.5
2017 $87.5
2018 $90
2019 $95
So it is based on a model that assumes a recovery slightly beyond the current future curve. With nowadays brent price, the 2015 assumption seems to be OK. A lot of the time these NPV calculations are based on extremely high prices, so these assumptions seem more realistic than usual to me.
A 10% discount factor is really high for a company with (soon to be) no debt and no interest costs. I know it's the standard offcourse, but it should be noted that discounting at 10% doesn't really make sense for PTA and this builds in a certain safety.
- financial update
It's not wrong to exchange usd into cad to mitigate the currency risk. But they claim it's "to take advantage of the strong USD". This is a pretty LOL statement, because it implies they think they can predict where the exchange rate will move to in the short term. Since they locked in at US $0.8191 the USD appreciated another 2-3% so that's a small negative. But at least it shows that they are serious about paying off the current debt. Very positive that they expect to finalise a new credit facility.
Buying a short term put at 50$ brent seems like an awkard way to hedge. With current volatility that must have been at a steep price. Seems a bit like a panic move to me. Why not just sell some brent futures and lock in a price.
- suroco deal
Something doesn't add up there. I feel like the suroco numbers have been incredibly pumped up in the last quarterly before the takeover. The acquisition only added 3.3 thousand boe in proved reserves and 6.2 in proved plus probable? I know the road blocks interfered here, but this part: "The Company produced approximately 2.3 million boe during 2014 (98% oil), of which 2.0 million boe were produced from the Company's legacy Llanos assets, and 0.3 million boe were produced from the Putumayo assets that were acquired in 2014" ... Just 0.3 out of 2.3 coming from Putumayo? That's incredibly little and we know now where the disapointing december production figures came from...
Well I guess this is a done deal and PTA can now work on making Putumayo work. The new shipping route to Equador is a huge step in the right direction.
Well, it turns out I'm bringing up quite a few negative remarks here. So I would like to stress that I thought this report was a huge positive in general and a nice surprice to me.