RE:RE:RE:RE:Be Cautious - News OutThe beauty of our nation is that we can agree to disagree.
You're correct, debtors have a vested interest in the success of this (and any) company. The debtors are secured by the underlying assets of the company, and can tolerate a reasonable amount of risk. Common stock holders stand last in the securitized interest line, so comparing a bond holder to a stock holder is a stretch to say the least.
2000 beopd evaporates quickly when you're at the top of the decline curve and are not adding wells to production.
https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/usa-shale-production-kemp-idUSL6N0UT36S20150114
Here's a quick google search on Permian decline curves, and they're not pretty. Unless a producer is actively adding wells, their overall production will reflect the curve.
https://bit.ly/1LKqzhI
I agree, it's in big oils interest to see smaller frac players fail. Big oil will sit, and watch companies like Caza slowly bleed to death by declining production trying to support oppressive debt with bloated share structures.
Here's what I DONT GET:
There are MANY other great ways to play an oil rebound. I can name 5 producers that are going to survive and thrive with great returns. Why would you risk capital on Caza? PXT DTX SGY SPE TOU are a few to start.
Keep your current holdings if you want risk, adding to a loser is a fools game. Hey, if I'm wrong, you'll look smart even holding your current Caza.
If I'm right, the above will still be around, as will your money. Check the Caza website, they just terminated a farm in agreement today.
GLTA - former stockholder