RE:RE:RE:RE:SCG nice support today"Hi John. The creditor has no hope of recovering the investment without a continuation of the business. Agreed?"
True, but they are also savvy enough to know when to cut their losses when it becomes clear that a complete recovery is not in the cards. No creditor will continue to prop a failing business if they believe it is only going to lose even more money going forward. It all depends on what they see when they look at the books and quite frankly i am sure that is exactly what they are doing right now. i will tell you though, last quarter the loss was $313,275 but only $91,914 of that was from loan interest so debt elimination alone will not make them profitable. The creditors are going to have to see more... Now the question is, will they?
"It seems likely that they have determined that they can't do a quickie receivership, exercising their security, and save their key customer contracts. Therefore they would need to keep the operation and legal structure in tact to move forward. If secured creditors agreed to convert debt to shares, forced out 2/3 of top management and cut deals with any remaining large creditors then maybe the company has a chance."
Yes and no. I have seen many prearranged packaged bankruptcies that move like greased lightening so it is possible to do it with next to no disruption to the business. For all we know that is what this silence is all about. It is really hard to say.
"My earlier question was about the timing of investing. Maybe hold off and see what happends after rollback?"
That is my play. I would rather lose a little of any potential gain if it means I will be cutting the risk of a loss by a lot. Over the long haul you will make a lot more money that way than taking the high risk for a little extra gain. Besides if you wake up in the morning to a bankruptcy announcement you did not lose any of your capital, you only lost an opportunity and quite frankly opportunities are everywhere. Past all that, the old shares could be wiped-out and the play is on the new shares. Check the history of Air Canada. The old share holders paid for past sins and the new share holders made the money off their backs.
To sum it up, I can see this going any 1 of 3 ways, so risk to reward tells me to let them play their cards first before I consider playing mine.
Good luck on what ever you choose.