RE:PTA's Fair Value NowDeadcow, talking about PT by year end, do not forget VD's factual analysis where he notes that PTA should be NOW between C$0.49 and C$0.64.
I quote from VD's analysis: My Takeaway
It has never easy going through the down times. However, this is also the time when the fundamental investors are being given gifts and have the opportunity to buy shares at fabulous valuations in companies whose business models are not impaired. This is also the time when the energy investors have an opportunity to clean house on the energy portion of their portfolios.
On that front, Petroamerica remains strongly positioned at the beginning of 2015 with over US$60 million in cash balance, a solid production and reserves base, and a large portfolio of proven and producing oilfields in two different Basins in Colombia. Also, the lack of net debt, the ample cash and the positive working capital permit Petroamerica to protect and preserve the strength of its balance sheet during the current oil price downturn by adjusting investment activity and selectively allocating capital to the optimal projects under current conditions.
Unfortunately, the transformational deal with Suroco in Q3 2014 passed unnoticed because of the temporary blockades in the Putumayo Basin in Q3 2014 and the unprecedented collapse in the oil price in Q4 2014.
Nevertheless, the new Petroamerica is one of the fittest publicly-traded energy producers worldwide, given also that the company has undertaken lately significant cost reduction measures across the board. According to the new CEO, the G&A has been reduced by a third already and they intend to decrease it further. The company is also working to renegotiate service contracts, while transportation and diesel costs are coming down primarily thanks to new trucking route to Ecuador.
Therefore, Petroamerica pro forma the deal with Suroco is a diamond in the rough, which is sold for just US$65 million (including the negative net debt) at the current price of C$0.13 per share (1 USD = 1.245 CAD). And based on the publicly-available fundamentals to date, I do have a high degree of conviction that Petroamerica has the potential to dramatically outperform the energy sector by the end of 2015. My conviction for this performance is also supported by the following facts:
1) Petroamerica should stand at C$0.64/share now as we speak, based on today's average key metrics of its junior neighbors (Amerisur Resources, InterOil) in the Putumayo and Llanos Basins.
2) Petroamerica would be acquired for at least C$0.49/share now, based on the average acquisition metrics of the most recent deals in Colombia. And, this acquisition price results from a lowball production guidance of 5,500 boepd for H1 2015 that excludes the potential new production from Langur-2, Calatea-2 and Garza Roja-1 that will be drilled in Q1/Q2 2015.
3) Petroamerica's current Enterprise Value is just 4 times higher than Baron's, although Petroamerica's current production (excluding the production from Langur-2, Calatea-2 and Garza Roja-1 in H1 2015) is 32 times higher than Baron's current production.