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Mineweb: Zinc continues to falter

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https://www.mineweb.com/news/base-metals-and-minerals/zinc-continues-to-falter/

Zinc continues to falter

Against a bullish storyline, the price of zinc deflates.

Kip Keen | 27 February 2015 10:59

Despite an anticipated zinc deficit with ongoing mine closures, the spot price of zinc fails to get a lift.

After short lived gains in early 2015, the price of zinc sank in the past week or so from near $1/lb to the low $0.90s/lb.

The recent weakness in zinc comes on anemic metals trading amid the Chinese New Year, which recently ended.

Likewise, signs of a slowing Chinese economy, have injured the metal’s price.

Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank’s commodity specialist, highlighted zinc’s softness in a recent monthly market update.

“Of the four key base metals — copper, zinc, nickel and aluminium — zinc is holding up the best at US$0.93 per pound, though prices have edged down from US$0.985 in December,” Mohr noted.

She continued: “Base metal prices have been undermined by the negative sentiment caused by the fall in oil prices and a slowing Chinese economy. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing slipped into contractionary mode in January (below the 50 mark), indicating declining activity in manufacturing.”

Still, Mohr maintains a bullish outlook on the metal. Mohr, along with other analysts, maintains mine closures, with little apparent new supply to replace it, should support prices.

“Zinc prices could climb as high as $1.60-$1.70 in 2016-2017,” Mohr noted.

Later this year the Century zinc mine in Australia is expected to close, among other mines in the next couple years.

Speaking to Bloomberg, Heinz Eigner, CEO of zinc-miner Nyrstar, said that 500,000 tonnes would evaporate from the zinc market when Century closes.

“We are heading into a period that is forecast to be short on both the concentrate market and the refined metal market,” he told Bloomberg.

One x-factor, however, is how Chinese domestic supply might respond to increasing prices – perhaps coming online again quickly – if they come.

And of course the fate of zinc, extensively used to galvanize steel, will depend on demand for cars and trucks. While European car sales have been lacklustre, Chinese consumers are increasingly a force in the market.

Meantime, with low fuel prices U.S. consumers appear to be snapping up more steel/zinc intensive SUVs and trucks.