CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

RE:Gibson Energy

[ocean112]

we'll know next Friday for sure - so i'm going to sit tight.  I'm quite pleased the exchange has fallen to $0.79 (with some analysts projecting it to fall to $0.75 later this year).  This will reflect nicely in thier Q4 numbers (per the CFO - $1M EBITDA for each cent FX fell - when the benchmark was $0.90) Assuming average FX was $0.83 for Q4  - that's $7M EBITDA that might be reflected in Q4 that wasn't expected.  This doesn't include nominated volumes in Q4 that Doug announced....per the Whistler conference - "were are confident 8-9 trains is acheiveable"....which would translate to higher then expected EBITDA contribution from NATO.

...all in all - gearing up for a much better quarter than Q3 - with a potential announcement on NATO (which is back to negative value).  I've been watching the order book - there are very large blocks of buyers which is a positive sign - these large blocks started at $2.80.  That said,  one or two are artificially pushing this stock down (anonymous as of yesterday was at 465,000 shares - the next net seller was at 59,000 shares - so anonymous is selling close to 8x the next seller)....that screams of stock manipulation to me but i'm not complaining - i've been buying all the way to this level.  

The pattern has been consistant - morning run up - then by close - anonymous drive the price down another block.  Whoever is shorting is doing so knowing they are going to lose a ton of money (shorting at these levels seems crazy foolish) - unless there is some alterior motive at play (I keep thinking it may be a private equity firm pushing the stock lower to make a takeout bid as a multiple of closing price - then sell NATO and chemicals assets separately).  Anyway - stupid speculation but if it turns out to be the case - you heard it here first...:-)