Odds and ends1) The Jaguar Mining $20 million convertible debenture deal hasn`t closed as yet. They originally targeted a March 26th close date. It`s not clear if their deal has been delayed or if it is no longer on the table. Either way, Jaguar will probably try to raise money at some point over the next 9 months, as their secured $12.5 millioin debt (owed to Renvest) is due for repayment at the end of this year. Renvest could still get their money back from Jaguar soon, or they could get it later this year. We will have to wait to see what they do with it, if anything, once they receive the funds.
2) The Canadian gold price (NWM, a Canadian reporting entity) is still $1,500 per ounce. The Canadian dollar cash cost per ounce in Q3, 2014 was $1,173 (before the rain problems in Q4 and Q1`15).
3) The oil price is still 50% lower. The diesel price is substantially lower also. This is positive for NWM`s operation.
4) I Imagine Q4 operating numbers, and maybe Q1`15 also, will be ugly - even though they might have still been good enough to pay operating bills. We are now officially in Q2`15. I`m thinking the numbers should begin to look a bit better starting this quarter (Q2), if the rain/pit problems are out of the way. Unless a major global war breaks out, I believe we should continue to see the low oil and diesel prices for a while into the future. This is helpful for producing companies like NWM.
5) The US jobs number came out this morning. They only generated 126,000 jobs in March - only about 50% of what they expected. They also revised the January and February numbers lower. Government, Wall Street and the media will try to blame the poor March jobs data on the weather. However, most other US economic data have been poor for many months now. Of note, the Atlanta Fed model is predicting 0% (no growth) GDP for first quarter 2015. It will be difficult for the US Fed to raise interest rates this year (even though they desperately want to, in order to not lose as much credibility). The US dollar had gone parabolic over the past 6 months or so. It had hit 100 on the US dollar Index. However, recent economic developments has pushed it a little bit lower - sitting at 96.55 currently. The last 4 years have been brutal for gold and silver investors, especially in the junior sector. Maybe this is the year where we begin to recover.
Hopefully NWM`s management can find us a solution, both to recover and take advantage of any potential market uptrend. We have an operating gold mine (and a revenue stream). We don`t need to build one, as so many other junior companies do. We just need to address the debt situation and raise a bit extra cash to expand the mine. If the gold environment finally begins to turn more positive then maybe more options to address this situation with become available.
Hopefully Renvest (our secured debt holder) continues to work with us to turn this thing around, for the benefit of all stakeholders. We are extremely fortunate for the support of Renvest over the past couple of years.