RE:RE:rig count down again Although compelling that in itself is not a reason to invest in ATH. The reasons for putting in the line may be for long standing regulatory commitments as well. Once you are going to dig a hole the size of the pipe is almost irrelavant. If you are going to dig a hole for an 8 inch pipe, might as well go for 20''.
Also with the role of fracking and the tech advances, the plans Encana have with the pipe may be be part of a long term devolopment for their own fields going forward. The idea you are proposing would indicate that a suggestion that Encana would be cost sharing the pipe but I can't see that as being part of Encana's buisiness plan. They would almost have to indicate that in a note to shareholders that they were in a cost shareing arrangement or entering the midstreaming buisiness.
Also, using matting in many cases has proved to be more cost effective in the overall costs of projects when compared to reclamation of existing right of way and roads that are utilized by other industries, especially when a cost sharing arrangement can't be reached. Why bother? Just tell ASRD that you are using matting. CYA.
As for the Kabob area, it is rather geographically diverse compared to, say, Red Earth. There is a lot of gravel there actually. Also there is a bit of topograhy as well. Finally, the Kabob has been in use by O+G for 30 years and as such has very good access roads, such that road restrictions can often be enforced later, and lifted earlier. A good foreman can often plan projects around those restrictions quite easily.
The conclusion you have come to may very well be valid. But in itself I dont think it should be a deciding factor in ATH as an investment. Depending on your investment, further investigation may be required. But given the overall volatility of the stock and, and why it is volatile, there are a myriad of more important questions out there that need to be answered to validate an investment in ATH.
If you wish to reason ATH as a way to increase the value of your portfolio, maybe look for ways that ATH is increasing the value of theirs...ie in light of the long term crash of the value of the stock this company has found itself with a boatload of real cash....not a loc, debenture, or loan. But real honest to goodness cash. I almost couldn't believe it honestly. And in this market that is highly desirable and almost a requirement for survival. Unless they are carrying greater than say 1,5x debt, it's almost irrellavent as long as they maintain anything resembling cashflow. How Encana spends it's money is irrelevant. More to the point, it is how ATH will spend it's money they have now that is.
Therefore the wager is on Management in the long term and why I only trade this stock presently. And just to let you know that there are enough shares out there that are indeed for sale that a middle class blue collar worker is actually having more good days than bad.
Now if you could tell me who the major suppliers and contractors are on that pipleline job I would greatly appreciate it.
Good luck to all.