old postHey TheRock07 are you still invested? Here was Rocks' post from a couple months ago. Are these numbers still realistic?
Having examined capex-specific production level of 6000 boepd ( 75 % gas and liquids ) I can now revise my 2015 financial forecast.
We have
....., light oil at 653 barrels per day ,hedged at $77.50 US per barrel.
.....Natural gas at 1200 boepd, hedged at $23 US per barrel.
.....1150 barrels of NGLs per day, at an average price of $30 US per barrel.
.....900 bpd of unhedged light oil at $62.50 per barrel
.... 2100 boepd of unhedged natural gas at the EIA forecast of $20.00 US per boe
Putting all of this together, we have as 2015 proximate sales from energy production.....
HedgedLight oil.... $18.5 million US
NGLs....... ,,,,,,,,,,,, $12.5 million US
Hedged gas.... ...........$10 million US
Unhedged gas............$ 15.5 million US
Unhedged oil ............. $20.5 million US
Total 2015 Production sales = $76.0 million US
I assume 2013 all in operating costs, less interest, of $40 per barrel for light oil and $11 per boe for natty gas....to be conservative.
NGLs come with the wet gas production, so their cash costs will be relatively cheap.
I assume $10 per barrel should easily cover these costs.
So, all in cash flows, except interest payments, will be about $ 37.5 million US.
I estimate interest charges of about $8 million US, which leaves free cash flows of about $19 million US.
As for Wells Services, proforma had $37 million US in short term P $ A and $30 million US in external decom for a total of $67 million US.
I remove $15 million for $Q4/2014 which leaves about $52 million remaining for 2015.
( they also had about $55 million in longer term contracts ).
I use 55 % GM for external and 20 % for internal for a blended gross margin of about 37 %.
This results in cash flows from P and A at about $20 million for total cash flows of about $57.5 million US or about $70 million in C$ or about $0.22 per share.
This should be adequate to pay all capex, interest charges and pay down a nice chunk of debt.
Based on my current information, this seems quite reasonable if not conservative.
Fair value at just 5 times 2015 cash flows would be in excess of $1 per share.
Should light oil prices average more than $62.5 per barrel in 2015, my estimates would be conservative. Likewise for NGLs and natty gas.
I think they will. Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.coq/rooster-energy-ltd#pFiYfl62zp7mZcmq.99