RE:RE:drinking from the well
great posts oilhound and peaktopeak.
also they were out to hurt the russians (again i agree, and with obamas blessings, not a coincidence he stopped in for a visit to saudi as this was happening, also not a coincidence many large oil cos. have hedges imho) and imo they are bent on driving high cost producers out of business so my belief is we see relatively low oil prices for a couple more years barring an all out war in the middle east. the usa is more than happy to sit and watch russia iran and venezuela suffer ( you can kinda toss canada in there too as he is not a fan of the oil sands).
I worked in the industry for 38 years and have seen my share of ups and downs in this industry and i will say imho this one is different. the saudi's are intent to not lose any more market share, the world is awash in oil and will continue to be for a long time for many reasons. iae's hedges get them to stella, however, these guys haven't proven that they can operate successfully in the north sea at a low to medium priced oil environment. I don't believe a word they have said about future operating costs and only time will tell. I think the debt will be much closer to 1 bil. or even over by the time stella starts up. next q will be ok because of the realized gain from the hedge swaps but even then iae is saying debt will be higher at the end of q1 than it was on jan 1/2015 and they are saying opex will be lower. so 80 mil hedge gain lower opex, so even with the 75 mil capex in q1 they should not be increasing debt in q1, something is rotten in iae land as usual.not sure how any of you can actually trust these guys.
cheers ferret