Guesstimate - Inwentash/Pinetree Northair share situationPer LGreen`s request.
Hey LGreen, basic logic would suggest that his supply line must be nearing an end soon, but he just keeps going strong. He has (potentially) been heavy selling for at least a year now. He is like an eveready battery - ``takes a licking and keeps on ticking``.
We can say he ceased to be a Northair reporting insider around June 23, 2014. At that date, he (Sheldon Inwentash) controlled
11,706,627 Northair shares, as follows:
- Pinetree Account - 7,597,000 (last SEDI, insider reporting system, file date of June 23,2014)
- Direct Inwentash Account - 500,000 (last SEDI file date of May 23`14)
- Indirect Inwentash Account - 3,609,627 (last SEDI file date of June 4`14)
Huge amounts of Northair shares were sold in October, with a good size chunk being from the Pinetree/Inwentash pool. I believe a lot of the Pinetree specific (account) shares were cleared out in October, as Pinetree had urgent debt payments to deal with. Of note, we know that 3,000,000 Northair shares (likely from Pinetree) were crossed to Ryan Schedler group (Condire group of funds) At the time, Pinetree was busy clearing out shares from other companies as well. However, although most of the Pinetree shares might be have been sold in October, I believe that the Inwentash Direct and Indirect common share pools might have largely remained intact at the time (which is likely where the recent shares are coming from), if I had to guess.
Given that we have insider reporting up to June 23, 2014 (when Inwentash ceased to be a Northair insider with controlled share holdings of 10% or greater - and no longer had to file insider reports), it is best to look at all Northair trade volumes after that point when attempting to analyze the situation.
From June 24, 2014 to April 7, 2015 (today), roughly
26,500,000 Northair shares have been traded, as follows:
- Jun 24 - 30, 2014 - 157,000
- Jul - 887,000
- Aug - 875,000
- Sep - 1,368,000
- Oct - 14,517,000
- Nov - 845,000
- Dec - 1,200,000
- Jan 2015 - 2,250,000
- Feb - 1,455,000
- Mar - 2,573,000
- Apr 1 - 7, - 373,000
I think some of the high volumes from January to Mach also had a lot to do with people throwing in the towel - given up due both to the paper silver price being crushed and also the share price collapse.
I think also that selling pressure increased after the CEO mentioned (earlier this year) that drilling wouldn`t start until spring or summer. These people are likely drill results focused (only) people that wanted to park their money elsewhere in the short-term. These people might be starting to line up bids, on the cheap, to get back in before drilling program starts. This might partly account for the increase in stink bids - perhaps hopeful that Inwentash has one more giveaway blowout sale in him.
11,706,627 Pinetree-Inwentash Northair shares at June 23, 2014
divided by
26,500,000 Northair trade volume from June 24, 2014 to April 7, 2015
=
44.2% This means that it would have taken 44.2% of the Northair trade volumes over that that period to remove all shares from Inwentash control.
I think that is a reasonable percentage breakdown, with 44.2% of the supply since June 23, 2014 coming from the Pinetree-Inwentash pool and 55.8% coming from all other sellers, especially given that none of the other big shareholders (Condire Group, Sprott and Coeur) have sold any Northair shares. Thus, the hypothetical 55.8% sales would be made up of small holders of Northair shares.
At the end of the day, it`s impossible to know how many shares Inwentash still has available for sale.
But, all of the numbers are suggesting that there cannot be all that much supply left.