RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Q1 in late May Back of the Napkin math, with semi-conservative guesses:
Q1: $4M Rev, $2.5M expenses. EBITDA = $1.5M
Q2: $6M Rev, $3.0M expenses. EBITDA = $3.0M
Q1: $8M Rev, $3.5M expenses. EBITDA = $4.5M
Q1: $10M Rev, $4.0M expenses. EBITDA = $6.0M
2015 EBITDA = $15.0M
10x multiple = $150M valuation
100M shares (rounding off) = $1.50 share price
Back of the Napkin math, with more agressive guesses:
Q1: $4M Rev, $2.5M expenses. EBITDA = $1.5M
Q2: $7M Rev, $3.0M expenses. EBITDA = $4.0M
Q1: $12M Rev, $3.5M expenses. EBITDA = $8.5M
Q1: $17M Rev, $4.0M expenses. EBITDA = $13.0M
2015 EBITDA = $27.0M
10x multiple = $270M valuation
100M shares (rounding off) = $2.70 share price
recall that they said swiss post solutions would provide $1.5M im revs this year. Also they have over $10M in the warchest to roll-up other companies (never seen so many quotes about rolling up companies from a CEO)... this means they can target little guys who want some snipp stock options etc... also MAYBE they do another financing $10 to $20M financing when this thing gets over $1, to fund some buyouts. they specifically mentioned the word merge so that's interesting. also i'm unclear on the cash requirements/minimum revenues to get on nasdaq.
bottom line this recent 'weakness' (on stratospheric news) is chiefly due to the $4.1M escrow shares released 5 weeks ago, as well as the anticiation that the 55 cents january financing shares will be free-trading end of may and therefore keep a lid on the stock price until then. in any case, super opportunity to top off your share bucket. please send along any other companies that have this growth trajectory, with ZERO debt, in an arena that's only expanding (nowadays you look around and are surprised when people AREN'T looking at a screen while a passenger in a car, or at bus stop, or at grocery store, or at restaurant). like ackerman said, they are CREATING the niche.
my only fear? some monster swoops in and does the same thing. but what quells that fear are these msa's with fortune xxx companies. why would a monster not simply scoop up snipp rather than start from scratch. i think this is my favorite part: i will not have to make the decision when to sell. atul will eventually determine that when he agrees to be bought-out, hopefully for $500M plus.