CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

RE:The Potential Future of Canexus

[ocean112]

Blue - my two cents.   Canexus will be in the penalty box for a while - perhaps through 2015 and into 2016.  Their book value is under a dollar so there is more downside risk after Q1.  However, they have valuable assets which are undervalued. If you can play the long game, ignore what the price is doing day to day and come back in a year or two, you should be fine and perhaps make more than your breakeven.  There is little risk of bankruptcy given the stable NaCl an Brazil operations.  The banks will see these stable assets and give CUS some breathing room if they need to on thier covenants.  They still make plenty of cash to make thier interest payments and after they pay off the convertable at year end, and wrap up CAPEX for 2015, they should be in stronger shape in 2016 with marginal CAPEX requirements.  Given the dividend cut, they will start building thier cash pile in 2016.  I think that is what Doug is suggesting, that 2016 is when we should see some recovery.  So, i'm going to wait.  This board is far too stupid for me to engage anymore.  However, I respected your opinions so I figured i'd offer you opinion.  Unless you don't have to, it would be unfortunate to sell at these discounted levels.  If you play long, you will be fine.  My biggest advice is leave this board - it will make you crazy.  Let Kherson and the rest indulge in thier madness. 

Good luck.