GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
JohnDDon Apr 12, 2015 10:24pm
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Post# 23621901
RE:LTS Bakken Metrics
RE:LTS Bakken Metrics
When2buy said: "Given current sales metrics, it would suggest at least $95>$100K PPFB ($1.3>$1.5B)"
First I agree with much of what you have said. As you point out the 3rd party reserves evaluator has come up with a value north of $1.8 billion. Given the maturity of the Bakken and significant number of drilling targets (which are not included in the reserves estimate) and the fact the field has been derisked for close to a decade, I would expect a sale price in the $1.5 billion range give or take.
There is NO way the company will sell the Bakken for anything close to 1 billion as some have suggested. Gien the company is cash flow positive and most expect oil prices to trend higher, why would they.
I do not see a sale happending until the 4Q15/1Q16 when I believe oil prices will have firmed up and trending higher. A $1.5 Billion sale price for the Bakken would leave the company with around $200 million (even lower with a higher dollar) in debt and around 20,0000 boed from the Cardium and Swan Hills. I would expect the share will be trading materially higher in that case. Should be an interesting year ahead.