RE:RE:The Potential Future of CanexusCalgaryrider wrote: blue,
respectfully, I think you're nuts by doubling down now.
the CEO himself told you that The next 2 quarters are going to be worse for NATO than the last, and the last was BAD.
Throwing good money after bad is NEVER a SAGE investment. You should always be investing as if you've got nothing invested.
Though I agree that insolvency isn't really that plausible in today's market, it IS possible if oil goes down to $30. That can happen and banks can call their loans at any time their covenants are breached, which we know are happening or are borderline even today.
Brother, if you think there's blood in the streets, wait until tax loss selling season.....it's not that far away. CUS won't be recovering by then.....and if they are, it's goign to be because oil has rebounded to $60 or above and stayed there for a while.
If you're betting on that, you're way better off throwing your money into a slew of other investments that have much lower low side vs. a decent upside, Think Suncor, IMO or others. Seriously, you're playing with fire here......at least in the next 2 quarters, If you want your cash buried for a year or more, go for it.....it's a free world.
Either her way, I wish you luck, as I do with all investors that have been duped by not just poor execution, but management that is stick handling this situation like they have zero idea what to do next.
Remember, i to warn you guys that this was going to the $1.50 to $2.00 range, I got mocked, and here we are. I wouldn't be surprised if this is less than a buck in the next 2 to 5 months. Buy then, if anything, after the threats of dilution and bank calls have settled. This pig is trouble. Trust me.
Also, i personally know a dude that worked at Canexus. Though I won't comment on what he said about the company (due to legal limitations), I will say they ended up laying him off. And he is one of the smartest guys that I have ever come across in my days. To lay off quality people, when you have big problems, is not a Good thing. This guy is well regarded both inside and outside the organization, real CFO material. And, yep, they punched his ticket. Beware of a company that's run by people who have no value for the top 1% of their organization. Seriously.
Good luck.
Calgaryrider; Thanks’ for the comments. If I do actually “double down” it won’t be all at once. I do understand the RISK and I am OK with it. I never “bet the farm” on anything. If my current CUS position went to zero it would be painful but far from fatal. I have been “Investing” (I am not a trader) for almost 30 years. I have had my share of losers but to date only One (1) total loss and I have learned to be patient. I currently have more than enough “realised gains” in my account to apply a loss to if and when I actually realise one. That said paying tax is preferable to losing money.
The way I see it any NEW Shares that I can pick up at less than $1.50 have a good chance to double in a year or so assuming that Canexus is successful in selling both N. Van and NATO by late 2015 or early 2016 and things could get worse before they get better.
I agree that until the Oil market shows signs of improvement it will be difficult to get a decent price for NATO.
The “Experts” have demonstrated conclusively their inability to predict the price of Oil with anything resembling accuracy. We can’t rely on the “Experts” so we have to form our own opinions.
In “my opinion” the Oil price will grind its way up for the next few weeks and then recover nicely to $65 - $75 WTI in late 2015 early 2016 and grind its way up over time from there. I am assuming that the turmoil in Middle East does not escalate into an all-out war. Things seem to be heading in that direction but hopefully cooler heads will prevail.
At the end of the day we have to make our Decisions based on our Opinions, Circumstances, Risk Tolerance and “Own The Results”.
As Always, Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!