RE:RE:COS Earning: Announcement date: 4/30/2015 - After MarketThe premium is computed after coverting the US WTI to Cdn$. The differnce is the premium or discount. In Q1, COS had an average discount of around C$1.75. For the past couple of weeks they have averaged a C$2 premium. The US refiners are into gasoline and diesel production and SCO is better than WTI. US LTO is useless for making diesel and less so for gasoline.
I wish that you were right about Q1. I am hoping the market will ignore Q1 and look to the future. Just like the analysts missed EPS for CVE becasue of FX, the will also be wrong on COS. COS EPS will be closer to a loss of 30¢. However more critically cash flow is more important number to look at. If they let some contractors go, the might come in with a lower direct operating cost, say around $37/bbl. The market would be pleased with that. Also look to see if they had to tap into their line of credit. They may need that for Q2 because of the low production associated with the turnaround of Coker 8-3.
In COSs case, guidance will be critical, i.e. use of a better WTI price and guidance on projected premium/discount on SCO. It would be helpful if they were to indicate how April production is going or mention something about increased reliability.
Hoping for the best and long
Namsoc