RE:RE:How do you calc a buyout number?looking at it from a different angle
What would you pay to get a 10% divvy of 20c per share?
$1.00? well if you paid a dollar your divvy would be 20%...so would someone that just saw you take out the $1.00 offer pay $1.05? at what point does a divvy no longer warrant the risk on the share price? 5%? ALL DEPENDS ON THE BANK RATE. and the forecast.
Thats why you hold a stock like this and push for a divvy, because a dividend dictates the shareprice, not the production or the resource.
the_Chief wrote: Why go it alone? if not $1.50+ because I think as we approach 2020 our Graphite and our Graphene from this graphite will be in high demand. So theroetically 1.50 is 7.5 years of 20c dividends.
So why sell a company that may pay you a 20c dividend? A 20c dividend becomes "interest" using the banks point of view. At $2.00 a share if you can get a 20c dividend, you are getting a 10% return, let me know where you can possibly get a 10% return on your investment at a bank?
So the Divvy is what will drive the shareprice not the rumour or lack thereof of a buyout.
the_Chief wrote: IF and I stress IF we were ever subject to a buyout offer. It would be based on the following criteria.
Value of finished product- I am assuming $15K
Number of Probable tons of concentrate- I am assuming 15K at this precise moment
Market size
Value of finished product, would at best fall during a long period of time, but the good thing is the market would also increase offsetting any drop. So if you believe 1500 tons at $15K then we would sell 2000 at $13K etc as time went on.
Resource, I am on record as saying 15K east block at the moment with alot more work to do and 560K tons of concentrate on West block.
Lets suppose for a moment its 100K tons. and assume after expenses we pocket $12000US per ton
which with Marbelous credits I believe is more then "doable".
The insitu value is 1,200,000,000 assumong a 20% insitu value on buyout, which is highly likely when discussing premiums for property and you get $240,000,000 offer.
Why a premium? Ease of access, Product at surface, Quarry equip in area, Rail system Power etc as well as a fully functional Mill totally licensed. So the mill is the ticket and thats why I give credit to Mr Duncan on acting quickly regarding the Tailings pond on Asbury. Why? Because anyone wanting to move into Canada wants a "footprint" and all the enviromental hurdles already done with.
They are not interested in a 2-4 year start up.
So if they wait till next summer, and we have increased our rolling resource on the West Side then I think a buyout at $1.50-$2.00 would be fair for a fully ticketed company with a niche market.
Its not about ROI for companies that want to move into Canada and have a functional facility and source. Its to get set up as a Specialty manufacturer with ability to expand quickly as the market expands.
So my vote would be, if the offer is not over $1.50 lets go it alone because by the summer of 2016 the hard work will be over.