RE:Eric NuttleI don't think you ever have your head handed to you if you're primarily in cash. No matter what happens you always have that capital.
On the other hand, I agree with you on your takeover thesis. It's not a requirement for my investment but you have big cahones if you hold anything other than long positions overnight or over the weekend. Imagine waking up to the stock $5 or $10 higher just like that?...just silly. Most shorts if any are covered IMO.
A bid in the high teens might be taken seriously by shareholders albeit not by management. Those looking to buy now can take advantage of some uncertainty re: NDP and the big drop in oil. High teens / $20 is a far cry from having to pay high $20s to low $30s that would have been demanded if you look at the average price of COS over the past 5 years. The synergies that would be created by a Suncor or Imperial takeover are a no-brainer.
With a long-term horizon on COS you will do fine IMO while they pay you to hold it...a non-expiring call option on the price of oil...I'll take that any day.
Lastly, while the NDP election put a damper on things this past week, it will soon be business as usual and the realization will be that they will not do much of anything with the exception of the corporate tax rate in the short to medium term if that. Talk to me if/when oil gets back to $90+ and should that happen COS has cut costs so that will help offset any additional costs.
Having said that, hearing Notley say "everything is going to be A-OK" is such a joke considering their election platform. Let the market's reaction to their NDP election win be a message that business and investors will not take kindly to excessive impositions on the industry. The markets reaction was the shot across the bow so to speak...wake up NDP or your existence will not extend beyond the 4 years. ...in other words...don't do anything stupid cause Alberta's economy and employment will suffer in the end if it becomes clear that their policies are not business friendly.