Who Gives In?At the end of the day either Alpha or teh VEN's will have to give in and work together to make a deal go through. They both own close to 20% of the shares and both bought in when the prices were alot higher so stand alot to lose if they end up having to sell their shares following the sucess of the one of their bids. The VENS are in a better position since they bought 10% of their 20% over the last couple months so will not lose as much as ALPHA if the ALPHA bid was sucessful versus a sucessful bid from the VENS.
Either one on their own could likely swing the vote to no. A no vote needs 36% or more therefore with their existing 20% they both would need only 16% of the other common holders to vote no to reject a bid by the other Probably the commoners are skewed to no since most bought in at a higher price. This is why I think ALPHA and the VENS will ultimately have to come to some agreement as to what the share buyout price will be.
The VENS were open to working with Alpha according to a report in April so this is good news if they actually are working together now:
"While Alvarado and his partners haven't had contact with Alfa, they would be open to doing so in the future, he said."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-16/pacific-rubiales-extends-weekly-gain-to-51-as-alfa-bets-renewed
As for ALPHA they said they were open to all options:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/pacific-falls-to-record-low-in-bogota-after-lazard-reduces-stake
"Mexican conglomerate Alfa SAB would consider buying, selling or keeping shares of Pacific Rubiales, Chairman Armando Garza said at a press conference on Wednesday. Such a decision “isn’t easy to make,” he said. The comments renewed optimism about a potential takeover, according to David Neuhauser, a fund manager at Livermore Partners in Northbrook, Illinois."
Neither alpha nor the VEN's want to lose money and one will for sure if the other is sucessful in their bid and they didn't come to an agreement before the bid. In the last month the VENs have double down to make sure their interests are represnted ie. they could swing the vote to no if they want. I don't think they want to take over the company they just want to prevent a loss if the alpha deal goes through and they have to sell their shares @ $6.5.
From the VENS perspective they will want to figure out the value of PRE and what would be the price they could accept for alpha to take PRE over. If the value of PRE is lower then their minimum acceptable price then likely alpha and the VEN's will be too far apart. The VEN team is doing now evaluating the value of PRE and likely already know what the minimum share price they will accept is; we knowit's higher then $6.5. If that price is too rich for alpha then I think they will bail and sell their shares. Lizard another former big shareholder recently bailed on their holdings at alot lower price:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/pacific-falls-to-record-low-in-bogota-after-lazard-reduces-stake
The best case scenerio for commoners is for Alpha and the VENS to reach an agreement. If they don't then I think the deal will bust and the share price will drop as alpha unloads. The VENS will rde out the wave since they see intrinsic value long term and PRE will continue down the path they are on.
There are econimic studies that reviewed hundreds of takeover bids over decades where they combined the data from all. When the market thinks the bid is low the share price post the bid announcement goes to or above the bid price. When the market thinks there is risk or the bid is fair the share price settles about 10% below the bid price. There has t be a upside for those taking on risk buying post the bid announcement if the deal is accepted which happens 75% of the time on an all cash offer. However there is the 25% chance the deal doesn't go through and those who bought post bid stand to lose on the short term.