https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-beginning-shortage-looks-like-joe-lowry?trk=prof-post
The two price charts below show what the start of a tight lithium market looks like.
The high end price for lithium carbonate has broken through $7,000/MT and will likely continue to increase. Heavy demand from Asia, the continuing delay of Albemarle/Rockwood's carbonate expansion and Orocobre's slow ramp up have contributed to spot shortages. SQM clearly cannot fill the gap. FMC continues to apologize to customers for their limited ability to supply. Suppliers are actually trying to buy back customer's inventory in some cases. Carbonate producers in China have little incentive to export given strong domestic demand and the VAT situation.
Price on the low end is constrained by annual and other long term contracts.
Hydroxide prices are also moving up. Asia demand is strong despite less than planned purchases from the Panasonic/Tesla supply chain.
FMC is benefiting the most from high hydroxide prices but production problems limit their ability to fully leverage a great opportunity. The high hydroxide price and the fact that Chinese producers have a similar cost structure for carbonate and hydroxide due to their spodumene based production process; has created a great opportunity for companies like Ganfeng, Sichuan Nike Guorun and Sichuan Yahua to export. The hydroxide price premium vs carbonate provides all the incentive they need.