RE:RE:RE:How is it going to go?????old_dog wrote: Think about it for a minute. Fertilizer has been floating in a small band width for some time and pretty soon ( 1 year to 3 years) its going to break out. At that stage your looking for anywhere near 125.00 to 250.00 more per ton. This increase will be the result of consoidation of a lot of juniors by the majors.
People only see what is in their eye contact area..MBC...8 cents...thats all they see...8 cents.....keep looking because thats what it is not....this is just a spot in time.
Corporate window senior management
Primary objective to seek the future and plan for future growth and expansion while keeping abreast of current operations from senior executives.
Senior exectives to manage their respective departments
Primary objective ensuring that operations managers are on top of their game and that their conforming to laws, regluations, health and safety
Operations managers running said operations ensuring compliance from the top and the managing concerns of operations from the bottom.
right now its those management teams of various companies that are looking to the future and how many companies they can gobble up and at what point will they be able to start squeezing more money out of the commodity. With that in mind they have to be cognizant of the fact that the window will 1 to 3 years out before thay can really start squeezing the markets hard.....squeeze now and some juniors may see financing coming their way to help them weather the storm.....to help it along their willing to pay a small premium right now just to obtain those companies....like the oil filter commerical....you can pay me now (oil filter cost)...or you can pay me later (engine job cost)....right now their buying the filter/s....they don't want to pay for the engine job (inflated fertilizer company for sale) when prices rise and they need more inventory to keep their companies viable.
This why I came to that pricing and the fact that it still has a value of 66 cents by analyst
Every major looking at the company knows its value, it knows its short comings, it knows its potenial, it knows everything that we for some strange reason think that they don't know...The stupid people are the people selling right now...the even more stupid people will be the people that continue to sell until news. This is not the time to sell or think about selling. If anything it is the time to be buying a few thousand day by day...the prices are a gift.
old_dog
Old_Dog you make a lot of assumptions that are questionable
1. Fertilizer has been floating in a small band width for some time and pretty soon ( 1 year to 3 years) its going to break out.
Yes it has - And you are correct that the best way to increase the price is to restrict and control supply which will happen if producing mines are in fewer and fewer hands.
Commodities are always 1-3 years away from 'breaking out' - Analysts called for that to happen in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Never happened. It's always just around the corner...but never is.
2. "squeeze now and some juniors may see financing coming their way to help them weather the storm"
Actually there is no financing coming thier way - juniors are distressed and have no leverage to negotiate. Why did Allana Potash sell. Because they didn't believe they could any financing.
They did get a great deal under the circumstances.
3. ".....to help it along their willing to pay a small premium right now just to obtain those companies"
Again you assume that a lot of companies have enough strategic foresight and thinking to be aggressive. Fact is I have no clue why companies waited until MBAC intiated a strategic review to be interested in buying them.
If I were one of the large majors I would have already done my DD on all these juniors globaly and then picked them off one at a time - MBAC included back in October of 2014.
4."This why I came to that pricing and the fact that it still has a value of 66 cents by analyst" - This is BOOK VALUE. It's dropping quarter by quarter. It's the value of the reserves thats important not book value.
You think that this will sell for 875%
Again .20 to .30c if things are going well. It's a fire sale.